No. 1India
India's September inflation hits 5.54%, a 22-month high, above forecasts
Headline CPI rose to 5.54% from 4.82% in August, above the 5.40% Reuters poll consensus. It is the 11th straight monthly rise. Food inflation jumped to 7.74% from 5.97%, with rural prices rising faster than urban ones. India imports nearly 85% of its fuel, which leaves it exposed to Iran war disruption, and its June-September rainfall was the lowest in over a decade. The RBI hiked earlier this month for the first time since 2023 and said cuts are off the table near term. It projects 5.2% headline inflation for the year to March 2027, against a 4% target. HSBC expects another hike in December.
Why it mattersExpect Indian policy to stay tight, with food and fuel prices keeping pressure on both the rupee-rate outlook and rural demand.
Full story at Economy →No. 2Oil
Oil markets unsure what Trump's Russia-Ukraine 'energy ceasefire' actually changes
Oil traders on Monday struggled to judge whether President Trump's newly declared "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine would ease the global oil crisis. That crisis is deepening as the Middle East conflict drags on. The material we have gives no terms, timeline or price reaction, so the practical impact is still unclear.
No. 3UK Budget
IFS says Healey faces £35bn gap to fund defence without cuts
The Institute for Fiscal Studies says Chancellor John Healey may need to find about £35bn in his 28 October Budget. That is the sum needed to lift defence spending to 3% of national income by 2030 and raise health spending without squeezing other departments. Iran war inflation is eroding departmental budgets, so he must choose between cuts, tax rises or both. Labour's manifesto rules out raising National Insurance, income tax or VAT, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham says he will keep to that. The IFS expects borrowing costs to be about £10bn higher in 2029-30 and fiscal headroom of around £20bn, down from the OBR's £24bn. It still expects the fiscal rules to be met.
Why it mattersWatch gilt reaction on 28 October, since the market's tolerance for thinner headroom depends on whether Healey sets out credible spending plans.
Full story at BBC News →