No. 1Rates
Morgan Stanley strategist says bond market is tightening for the Fed
A Morgan Stanley strategist argues that markets are already doing some of the Federal Reserve's tightening. A stronger dollar, higher bond yields and elevated gasoline prices are squeezing U.S. financial conditions. The view is that this may leave Kevin Warsh with no need to hike rates at all. The strategist sees that as potentially good news for stocks. The source gives no figures, so watch whether the dollar and yields hold their gains.
No. 2Energy
Trump's Russian diesel deal draws bipartisan backlash in Congress
Trump said Putin agreed to release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, with 500,000 tonnes due in November and one million after that. A further three million tonnes would follow, depending on the state of Russian refineries. The Treasury is understood to be suspending sanctions on Russian diesel exports until 7 April, though frozen assets remain frozen. Seven senators, four Republicans and three Democrats, say the deal violates U.S. law and want it reversed. Bessent says it uses existing legal channels. Analysts question whether Russia can deliver, and 300,000 tonnes is about half a day of U.S. diesel use. Diesel averages $6.28 a gallon, against a record $6.53 at the end of September, with midterms next month.
Why it mattersYou should treat this as a political and sanctions risk, since the deal's relief for U.S. diesel prices looks small.
Full story at BBC News →No. 3Equities
Goldman Sachs turns more bullish on stocks for rest of year
Goldman Sachs is leaning more heavily into equities for the remainder of the year. It cites two reasons: earnings, and a market that has become cheaper overall. The source gives no targets or allocation figures. This sits against the tightening in financial conditions described above.